Wednesday, February 09, 2005

How much will Veritas Cost?

Finally there a hint of a manifesto up at Veritas. As they believe that they are top of the polls by 3% from Labour at the moment, I thought it would be interesting to cost their promises.

Immigration and Asylum Seekers - by only accepting the UK's "fair share" they claim to reduce costs by £1.5 billion/year.

Crime and Anti-Social Behaviour - Open all police stations 24/7 and recruit 40,000 extra police officers. My estimate cost £2 billion/year.

Pensions - Increase married pension by £48.75/week and single pension by £30.40/week. Difficult one to cost because for pensioners claiming Pension Credit, their pensions will not rise that much but a back of an envelope costing puts that at £8 billion/year.

Tax - Raise the Income Tax threshold so that a million workers are taken out of paying tax altogether. Of course, if you simply raise the threshold, all taxpayers benefit by the same amount. Estimated cost £26 billion/year.

Tax - Scrap Council Tax and pay for local services from national taxation, as they haven't mentioned increasing national taxation, that's a cost, another £24 billion/year.

Tax - Scrap Inheritance Tax on the family home. Despite what the Daily Mail might say, IHT on family homes is not a big money-spinner for the treasury and so this provision would not be a significant cost.

Tax - Likewise raising the Stamp Duty threshold on first-time buyers from £60k to £150k would not have large Treasury implications, although would make the bureaucracy more complex, together IHT and Stamp Duty costs wouldn't be more than £0.5 billion/year.

Drugs & Drink - Restoring Marriage Allowances and increasing tax allowances for families with children under the age of 5. Because they don't say how much, it's difficult to cost, but assuming it will be at a low-cost but symbolic level, lets say £1 billion/year including cost of administration. (By the way, why is this proposal under the Drugs and Drink heading?)

Europe - Here's the saving, according to Veritas, CIVITAS say EU membership costs the UK £40 billion/year. In fact CIVITAS reckon that EU membership costs somewhere between £17 billion/year and £40 billion/year, I'll be nice and we'll split the difference and make the cost to the UK £29 billion/year.

So, what's the score
Costs per year
Extra Police = £2b
Pensions = £8b
Income Tax Changes = £26b
Council Tax = £24b
IHT & Stamp Duty = £½b
Marriage and Family Tax Changes = £1b
TOTAL COST = £61½ billion/year

Savings per year
Reducing Asylum Seekers = £1½b
Leaving the EU = £29b
TOTAL SAVINGS = £30½ billion/year

That still leaves £31 billion short, maybe the Party of Truth would like to explain where the rest is coming from.

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